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University of Colorado Professors’ Electoral College Model Predicts 2012 Election Winner [post_view]
Two professors from the University of Colorado have created a model forecast for the Electoral College that predicts who will be victorious in the 2012 presidential election. The result from the model predicts Mitt Romney as the winner. The professors are from the Boulder and Denver campuses. They are Ken Bickers and Michael Berry, both political science professors. The professors claim that their model has predicted the winner of the electoral race correctly each time since 1980.
“Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble,” Bickers said.
Using economic indicators from the 50 states, the model shows 320 electoral votes for Romney and 218 electoral votes for Obama. Also shown by the model is that Romney will be victorious in all of the current swing states. Those states include Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Colorado.
Berry has said that even though their model has been successful in past years, it does not guarantee that it will be successful in 2012. “As scholars and pundits well know, each election has unique elements that could lead one or more states to behave in ways in a particular election that the model is unable to correctly predict.”
A press release from the University of Colorado states that the model from the professors is the only in the country to use the country’s unemployment rates and per capita income. The data from the model shows that voters in the country feel that Republicans are more responsible for per capita income while Democrats are more responsible for the unemployment rates.
“The apparent advantage of being a Democratic candidate and holding the White House disappears when the national unemployment rate hits 5.6 percent,” Berry said. Bickers then said, “The incumbency advantage enjoyed by President Obama, though statistically significant, is not great enough to offset high rates of unemployment currently experienced in many of the states.”
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